Manic Melon

Am I *finally* right?

I started watching gold and silver in January 2008. I watched it make new highs of $1033 and $21, respectively. Then, I watched gold and silver start a correction that has lasted more than a month. Watching gold go from $1033 to $876 has not been fun.

My opinion has been that this is a temporary correction in order to gain steam to all new highs. So my question is, do we finally have liftoff?

My early prediction

After watching gold and silver for a few months, I've gone from approximately zero knowledge to questioning whether I've learned a single thing. However, after much research it seems to me that gold is ready for a big move. I happen to think that this move is UP.

To further clarify...

I think that gold is going to make a big move, starting Thursday April 24th. I will admit I'm not 100% sure that north will be the direction.

My Estimates
Gold staying about where it is: 5%
Gold headed down, down down: 10%
Gold headed to the ~$970 range: 10%
Gold headed to new all time highs: 75%

Today's Metal Prices

As I write this post, gold just slipped down below $899. I suppose it did this to question my confidence. However, I'm holding to my opinion that gold will be bouncing up. See whether I'm right or wrong by looking at the kitco ticker below.

How am I looking?

Our Government has been paid.

"Tax Freedom Day is the first day of the year in which a nation as a whole has theoretically earned enough income to fund its annual tax burden." - Wikipedia

As a result, today is the first day that you're earning money for yourself. Every work day from January 1st to date has gone to the government. I don't know about you, but I'm happy that today has arrived, yet feel some twinges of frustration at our tax system.

Year — TFD — Percentage Tax Burden

• 1900 — January 22 — 5.9%
• 1910 — January 19 — 5.0%
• 1920 — February 13 — 12.0%
• 1930 — February 12 — 11.7%
• 1940 — March 7 — 17.9%
• 1950 — March 31 — 24.6%
• 1960 — April 11 — 27.7%
• 1970 — April 19 — 29.6%
• 1980 — April 21 — 30.4%
• 1990 — April 21 — 30.4%
• 2000 — May 3 — 33.6%
• 2002 — April 19 — 29.8%
• 2004 — April 17 — 29.3%
• 2006 — April 26 — 31.5%
• 2008 — April 23 — 30.8%
  
  source: The Tax Foundation

Taxes VS Other Expenses

"In 2008, Americans will work 74 days to afford their federal taxes and 39 more days to pay state and local taxes. Meanwhile, buying food requires 35 days of work, clothing 13 days, and housing 60 days. Other major categories are health and medical care (50 days), transportation (29 days), and recreation (21 days)." - says The Tax Foundation

Varies by State

If you consider state taxes, the state specific Tax Freedom Day varies. A big apology to those in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York... your tax freedom days won't arrive until May. South Carolina and Texas: you're looking better and better all the time!

Turn off the TV

April 20th through April 25th, we'll be keeping our television off. Not like we watch that much television to start with... but we're looking forward to spending some extra time at the park, reading books, talking walks, visiting friends, and more!

Hope you'll join us

In Theaters - April 18th

I'm moving the "WEB" section of my blog and replacing it with a "world" section. It's true, this is unlikely to make CNN or MSNBC. I'm going to move Internet related articles to a sub-category of the "business" pane of this website, and use this new world category to get a little more controversial and talk about science, politics, and world events. This might get interesting.