Manic Melon

Was today's market turmoil the pretense to the fact that friday 10/10 the Lehman Brothers Credit Default Swaps settle out?

The Fannie and Freddie CDS settlements were between 91 and 95 cents on the dollar, but Lehman's settlements are likely to result in HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS in losses.

More: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/lehman-cds-unwi.html

Update from the WSJ:

NEW YORK -- The final result in the settlement of the credit default swaps on Lehman Brothers was even lower than a disappointing early estimate, which leaves dealer banks facing higher than expected payouts on multi-billion dollar insurance contracts.

The recovery rate on the bankrupt firm's senior debt was fixed at 8.625 cents on the dollar, just below the 9.75 cents published in the first estimate Friday. That means the sellers of insurance on these defaulted bonds are on the hook for the remaining 91.375 cents. That's well above the approximate 88 cents envisaged earlier this week, when increased demand for paper to present in return for compensation inflated the market price.

The low final rate qualifies this as one of the most expensive defaults ever in the credit derivatives market. Following the default of Italian food company Parmalat back in 2003, its debt was valued at just below 10 cents on the dollar.

The result nevertheless shouldn't come as a painful surprise for the sellers of protection on Lehman.

Since Lehman's Sept. 15 bankruptcy filing, there has been considerable anxiety that dealers who had underwritten some $400 billion of credit default swaps on the bank would be caught short in a massive payout.

But sharp market moves in the value of these insurance-like contracts would have obliged most sellers of these insurance-like contracts to post additional collateral to cover their potential losses. As a result, they should have sufficient funds set aside to handle their liabilities in this settlement.

"Worries over ex-broker-dealer exposures and their knock-on impact are misguided," said Tim Backshall, senior credit analyst with Credit Derivatives Research.

What's more, the result is to the benefit of those banks that were buyers of the CDS.

"Keep in mind that the extra few billion to be paid will wind up in the hands of lucky buyers, making it a zero-sum game in reality," said Tony Crescenzi, strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co.

Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve

National Debt as a % of GDP

National Debt Update

The Gross National Debt

Learn more at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_debt

1 year DOW Range: 14280 - 8579

October 7, 2008: S&P500 closes below the phsycological level of 1000 for the first time since August 2003.

Confirmed by the DOW:

For those of us that are following this...
Cheer up, the worst is yet to come

Watch it: http://www.c-spanarchives.org/flash/player-time.html?start=2008-10-02%2020:06:57&stop=2008-10-02%2020:21:57&net=1

Update: Link above seems to no longer work. Read the text:

The only way they can pass this bill, is by creating and sustaining a panic atmosphere. That atmosphere is not justified. Many of us were told in private conversations that if we voted against this bill on Monday, that the sky would fall, the market would drop 2000-3000 points the first day, and couple thousand the 2nd day, and a few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no………..

……We’ve got a week…we’ve got 2 weeks to write a good bill……..

……….What has the Senate done to this bill? First, they added pork to it in the hope that that would buy off some votes. Second, they created a double-hostage situation. We already know that the first bill was a hostage situation. When Paulson announced the crisis and basically sent a ransom note. And that ransom note read, “We’ve got your 401k, and you’ll never see it alive again unless you send us $700 billion in unmarked bills."

Now there is the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) patch. A necessary tax provision that Congress passes every year. Without this patch, the AMT tax, which is designed to fall only on the wealthy, will hit another 20 million American households. Everyone knows we have to pass this. We sent it to the Senate for them to pass. Instead of passing it, they created a hostage situation. The refused to pass it—they put it on this bill, and so now we are being told if you don’t send $700B to Wall St, we’re gonna tax 20 million American families in a way that no one in Congress wants to do. That is totally phony. If we vote down this bill, the Senate will [still] pass the AMT patch bill that we sent them, just like they do, every year.

Now there was some attempt to tell the American people that this bill is not going to cost them anything permanently, because in 2013 we’re gonna get the money back from the Financial Services industry. Nothing could be further from the truth………..

[Explains in detail how the recovery mechanism will not work]

Now as I said, hundreds of billions of dollars are going to be used to bail out foreign investors. That is why my amendment, which easily fixes that problem, has been rejected. Because the White House demands that we bail out these foreign investors. That’s what they want to do. That’s what they promised the Saudi Royal Family. That’s what they promised the Bank of China. Those promises will be honored with this tax money, squeezed out of the American people.

[Explains in detail how the executive compensation loophole will be exploited]

Now we are told that there is gonna be oversight in this bill. There is a good, Democratic-dominated, board that is created. It is a CRITIQUE board. It is NOT a control board. It is a board that will issue press releases and reports, but it cannot halt, it cannot reverse, it cannot delay, any decision made by the Sec of the Treasury.

[Explains in detail how the bill gives too much power to Paulson]

[Explains in detail how the 2009 Reform Legislation will not work]

We are going to see a very large percentage of this money going to buy securities, bad paper, toxic assets, currently in safes in Beijing, Shanghai, London and Riyadh. And we are going to see all the power in the hands of the Bush Admin and a part-time, temporary administrator, namely the Sec of the Treasury. Under this bill, if it passes, we don’t really know what is going to happen to the economy. No one knows. The only thing that is certain, are 2 things:
- Wall St Executives are gonna get huge amounts of money, and
- Our children and grandchildren are going to get stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars of additional Federal debt.

And, we as a country, having just done a bad $700 billion program, will not be able to do anything to help homeowners, because we won’t have the money. We won’t be able to bail out local governments, because we won’t have the money. We won’t be able to deal effectively with the REAL commercial banking lending crisis, because we will have shot our entire wad on a bill that is guaranteed to only do one thing, and that is to help the truly wealthy on Wall Street.